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Monday, 08/02/2010
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Spline Models for the Population Total from PPS Samples: The Precision Gain from Knowing the Sizes of Nonsampled Units
Sahar Z. Zangeneh, University of Michigan; Roderick Joseph Little, University of Michigan
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A General Numerical Method for Probability Mass Functions in Count Data Time Series
Rong Zhu, McMaster University; Harry Joe, The University of British Columbia
8:35 AM
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Inference for Kappas for Longitudinal Study Data: Applications to Sexual Health Research
Yan Ma, Hospital for Special Surgery, Weill Medical College of Cornell University; Wan Tang, University of Rochester; Changyong Feng, University of Rochester Medical Center; Xin M. Tu, University of Rochester
8:50 AM
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Comparison of Different Models for Predicting the Probability of Interview Completion in Complex Telephone Surveys
Robert Montgomery, NORC; Xian Tao , NORC; Zhen Zhao, CDC; Meena Khare, National Center for Health Statistics
9:20 AM
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Modeling Log-Linear Restricted Conditional Probabilities for Prediction in Surveys
Yves Thibaudeau, U.S. Census Bureau; Eric Slud, U.S. Census Bureau; Alfred Gottschalck, U.S. Census Bureau
9:35 AM
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An Algorithm to Evaluate Probability of Success for Decisionmaking in Early Drug Development
Annie Wang, Abbott Laboratories; Narinder Nangia, Abbott Laboratories
9:50 AM
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Probability in Decline
Dean Michael Brooks, Ekaros Analytical Inc.
9:55 AM
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Good Bayesian and Other Thinking
Stephen E. Fienberg , Carnegie Mellon University
10:35 AM
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Analysis of Discrete Longitudinal Data Using Weighted Pseudo-Likelihood Method
Abdus Sattar Sattar, Case Western Reserve University
10:35 AM
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A Robust-Likelihood Cummulative Sum Chart
Youlan Rao, Millennium Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Steven MacEachern, The Ohio State University; Chunjie Wu, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
11:20 AM
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Q Charts for the Exponential Distribution
Schalk William Human, University of Pretoria; Subhabrata Chakraborti, The University of Alabama
11:50 AM
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Adaptive Design for Sample Size Re-estimation in a Medical Device Trial of Spinal Cord Stimulation
Nitzan Mekel-Bobrov, Boston Scientific Corporation
2:05 PM
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Comparing Vaccination Estimates from Four Survey Designs: Vaccination Estimates from RDD, RDD+Cell, ABS, and Area Probability Sampling
Martin Barron, NORC; Karen Wooten, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases; Beth Taylor, National Center for Health Statistics
2:45 PM
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Estimating Lifetime or Episode-of-Illness Costs Under Censoring
Anirban Basu, The University of Chicago; Willard G. Manning, The University of Chicago
3:05 PM
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Performance Characteristic of Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) for Data Monitoring Committee (DMC) Review in Drug-Eluting Stent Clinical Trials
Yun Lu, Boston Scientific Corporation; Huyuan Yang, Boston Scientific Corporation
3:05 PM
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Boundary Problem in the Kernel Estimation of Probability Distribution Function
Shunpu Zhang, National Cancer Institute
3:20 PM
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Estimating a Misclassification Probability in a Binomial Setting
Patrick Lennon Kendall Zimmerman, University of Minnesota, Twin Cities; Greg C. Liknes, U.S. Forest Service
3:35 PM
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Tuesday, 08/03/2010
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Regression Parameters as Outcomes: Simple vs. Sophisticated Analyses
Reid D. Landes, University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences
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A Bias-Corrected Method for Estimating the Proportion of True Null Hypotheses
Dexiang Gao, The Children's Hospital - Denver; Tiejun Tong, University of Colorado, Boulder
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Assessing Concurrent Effects of Substance Abuse Treatment Modalities Using Marginal Structural Models
Beth Ann Griffin, RAND Corporation; Rajeev Ramchand, RAND Corporation; Cha-Chi Fan, RAND Corporation; Daniel Almirall, University of Michigan; Daniel F. McCaffrey, RAND Corporation
8:35 AM
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A Probability for Classification Based on the Mixture of Dirichlet Process Model
Ruth Fuentes-Garcia, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; Ramses Mena, IIMAS-UNAM; Stephen Graham Walker, University of Kent
8:50 AM
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Autocontour-Based Evaluation of Out-of-Sample Density Forecasts
Emre Yoldas, Bentley University; Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera, University of California, Riverside
8:50 AM
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Tolerance Factors in Multiple and Multivariate Linear Regressions
Sumona Mondal, Clarkson University; Kalimuthu Krishnamoorthy, University of Louisiana at Lafayette
9:05 AM
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Distribution-Free Models for Latent Population Mixtures
Hui Zhang, University of Rochester Medical Center
9:50 AM
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An Automatic Crack Detection Algorithm for Vibrothermography Sequence-of-Images Data
William Q. Meeker, Iowa State University; Ming Li, Iowa State University; Steve Holland, Iowa State University
10:50 AM
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Improved Prediction Intervals for Binomial and Poisson Distributions
Jie Peng, St. Ambrose University; Kalimuthu Krishnamoorthy, University of Louisiana at Lafayette
11:35 AM
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Using IV with Subjective Assumptions to Construct Treatment Effect Bounds on Continuous Outcomes in Observational Studies
Joseph W. Hogan, Brown University; Tao Liu, Brown University
2:05 PM
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Multiple Frame Sample Design and Estimation for the 2008 National Sample Survey of Registered Nurses - Theory, Implementation, and Assessment
Ralph DiGaetano, Westat; Jim Green, Westat; Jay Clark, Westat; Marshall Fritz, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
2:05 PM
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Ratio of Mediator Probability Weighting for Estimating Natural Direct and Indirect Effects
Guanglei Hong, The University of Chicago
2:25 PM
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Approximate Confidence Limits for a Proportion of the Hypergeometric Probability Distribution: Applications in Audits, Acceptance Sampling and Medical Investigations
Yevgeniy Voinov, KIMEP
2:50 PM
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Inference for Treatment Efficacy on Survival Probability in Randomized Clinical Trials with Noncompliance
Ying Zhou, University of California, Los Angeles
3:05 PM
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Using the Dice-Based Golf Game GOLO to Illustrate Discrete Probability Distributions and Sampling Distributions on Proportions
Paul L. Stephenson, Grand Valley State University; Mary Richardson, Grand Valley State University; John Gabrosek, Grand Valley State University; Diann Reischman, Grand Valley State University
3:25 PM
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Wednesday, 08/04/2010
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Probability-Proportional-to-Size Sampling from a Rare Population
Jens Olofsson, Örebro University
8:50 AM
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Forecasting Clinical Trial Enrollment: A Case Study
Zachary Skrivanek, Eli Lilly and Company
9:05 AM
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A Horvitz-Thompson--Type Estimator of Species Richness
Steen Magnussen, Canadian Forest Service
9:15 AM
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Sample Redesign of the Annual Fuel Oil and Kerosene Sales Report Survey
Bin Zhang, Energy Information Administration; Pedro Saavedra, ICF Macro; Benita Jean O'Colmain, ICF Macro ; Paula Ellen Mason, Energy Information Administration; Amerine Woodyard, Energy Information Administration
9:20 AM
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A Comprehensive Probability Project for the Upper-Division One-Semester Probability Course Using Yahtzee
Jason Wilson, Biola University
9:35 AM
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Probability Maps for Brain Activity via fMRI
Lynne Seymour, The University of Georgia; Ana Bargo, The University of Georgia; Abhyuday Mandal, The University of Georgia; Nicole Lazae, The University of Georgia; Jennifer McDowell, The University of Georgia
9:35 AM
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Intensity-Based Estimation of Extreme Loss Event Probability and Value-at-Risk
Kam Hamidieh, Rice University; Stilian Stoev, University of Michigan; George Michailidis, University of Michigan
10:35 AM
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Horvitz-Thompson Variance Weights: Exact vs. Approximate
James R. Chromy, RTI International
10:35 AM
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Analysis of the Probability of Zero Rain Using an Alternating Renewal Process Approach
James Edmund Travis, University of Maryland Baltimore County; Anindya Roy, University of Maryland Baltimore County
10:50 AM
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Nonparametric Estimation of Concordance Probability with Censored Data
Mithat Gonen, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center; Glenn Heller, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center; Qianxing Mo, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center
2:45 PM
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Semiparametric Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood Estimation Exploiting Gene-Environment Independence for Population-Based Case-Control Studies with Complex Sampling
Barry I. Graubard, National Cancer Institute; Yan Li, The University of Texas at Arlington
2:55 PM
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Predictive Probability Approach for the Design and Analysis of Response and Toxicity Data in Cancer Clinical Trials
J. Jack Lee, MD Anderson Cancer Center; Guosheng Yin, The University of Hong Kong; Nan Chen, M D Anderson Cancer Center
2:55 PM
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CUSUMs for Survival Outcomes with Dependent Censoring: Application to Monitoring Waitlist Mortality in Liver Transplant Programs
Jie (Rena) Sun, University of Michigan; John David Kalbfleisch, University of Michigan; Douglas E. Schaubel, University of Michigan
3:05 PM
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From Multiple Output Quantiles to Signed Ranks: A New Multivariate Probability Integral Transformation
Marc Hallin, Université Libre de Bruxelles
3:20 PM
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Thursday, 08/05/2010
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Are E911 Listings Good Enough to Use as a Sampling Frame for Area Surveys?
David A. Marker, Westat
8:55 AM
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Model-Based Confidence Intervals for Binomial Proportion
Desale Habtzghi, The University of Akron; Chand Midha, The University of Akron; Ashish Das, Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay
9:20 AM
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Distance-Based Probability Distributions on Set Partitions for Bayesian Nonparametric Models
David Dahl, Texas A&M University; Ryan Day, University of the Pacific; Jerry Tsai, University of the Pacific
9:25 AM
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Evaluation of Probability Forecasts: An Empirical Bayes Approach
Tze Leung Lai, Stanford University; Shulamith Gross, Baruch College, CUNY
9:35 AM
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Inverse Probability Weighting for Clustered Nonresponse
Chris Skinner, University of Southampton
10:35 AM
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Sequential Conditional Tests for an Increasing Trend in a Sequence of Binomial Proportions with Applications to Safety Signal Detection
Jie Chen, Abbott Laboratories
10:55 AM
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Qualities of Coverage: Who Is Included or Excluded by Decisions of Frame Composition?
Edward Marks English, NORC; Colm O'Muircheartaigh, NORC; Katie Dekker, NORC; Michael Latterner, NORC
10:55 AM
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The Use of Nomogram Predictions as Comparators for Adjuvant Treatment Studies in Prostate Cancer
Zhenyu Jia, University of California, Irvine; James Koziol, The Scripps Research Institute; Michael Lilly, University of California, Irvine; Dan Mercola, University of California, Irvine
11:05 AM
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Defining Probability Density for a Distribution of Random Functions
Aurore Delaigle, The University of Melbourne; Peter Hall, The University of Melbourne
11:15 AM
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Spatial Scan Statistics with Overdispersion
Tonglin Zhang, Purdue University
11:15 AM
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Nonparametric Estimation of Response Probabilities in Survey Sampling: An Empirical Investigation
Audrey Beliveau, Université de Montréal; David Haziza, Université de Montréal
11:35 AM
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