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Friday, October 8
Community
Knowledge
Fri, Oct 8, 2:45 PM - 4:00 PM
Virtual
Public Health Applications

The Trend, Forecast, and Influential Factors of COVID-19 in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Countries (309885)

Xiangrong Liu, Bridgewater State University 
*Wanchunzi Yu, Bridgewater State University 

Keywords: Covid-19, ARIMA Model, MENA Countries, Cultural Factors

The Covid-19 pandemic is one of the greatest chaos in public health, politics, and citizen’s normal life worldwide. Many countries are significantly impacted, especially for the developing countries like the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. The goal of this study is to demonstrate the changes and forecast the trends of the Covid-19 data in nineteen MENA countries sourced by the World Bank, as well as illustrate how cultural factors come into play a role. The Tableau dashboards are created to display the geography of the MENA countries in relation to one another and compare the status of Covid-19 using total cases, total deaths, and other metrics such as incidence rate defined by the US Center for Disease Control (CDC). Furthermore, we develop the ARIMA time series models to estimate the Covid-19 incidence rates for all the MENA countries and produce accurate one-week forecasts. We also investigate how the Covid-19 in MENA countries are affected by the cultural factors: power distance, individualism, masculinity, uncertainty avoidance, long-time orientation, and indulgence, in addition to the other factors including GPD, life expectancy, human development index.