Quantifying the Impact of Education and Family Planning on Fertility (306482)*Daphne H Liu, University of Washington
Adrian E Raftery, University of Washington
Keywords: education, family planning, fertility, demography
The United Nations uses a Bayesian hierarchical model to create probabilistic projections of fertility. Women's education and family planning (WEFP) are two mechanisms identified as having a potential accelerating effect on fertility decline. Simultaneously, WEFP can be directly impacted by public policy initiatives. We assess the accelerating effect of WEFP on fertility decline and propose a conditional Bayesian hierarchical model for fertility projections that conditions on the impact of different WEFP policies on fertility decline. By considering potential policy outcomes within population projection models, we can improve fertility projections and provide an informative tool for policymakers in high-fertility countries.