Online Program

Population-Based Prognostic Model for Breast Cancer (304828)

Keywords: prognostic model, breast cancer, relapse-free survival, overall survival

We developed prognostic models to predict five-year overall survival (OS), ten-year overall survival (OS), and five-year relapse-free survival (RFS) using resources from the well-conducted Breast Cancer Survival Study (SBCSS). SBCSS is a large, population-based cohort study of 4,858 female breast cancer patients. In addition to patients' demographic, clinical, pathological, treatment information, our model incorporates novel modifiable lifestyle information. Missing covariates were completed with multiple imputation to reduce bias and increase precision. A multivariable Cox proportional hazard model was developed for each survival outcome. We internally validated our entire model development procedure using the .632 bootstrap method. To further simplify the full models for routine practice, reduced models were derived to approximate original full models using backward step down method. In conclusion, we built novel prognostic models for breast cancer survivors of Asian ancestry. Comparing to existing prognostic tools, we expanded the model to incorporate modifiable lifestyle predictors, ER, PR and HER2 status. Five-yr OS, 10-yr OS, and 5-yr RFS can be predicted with high accuracy.