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Saturday, June 1
Data Science Techologies
The SAMSI Program on Model Uncertainty
Sat, Jun 1, 1:00 PM - 2:35 PM
Grand Ballroom I

Uncertainty Quantification of Stochastic Computer Model for Binary Black Hole Formation (305090)

*Derek Bingham, Simon Fraser University 

Keywords: Computer simulator; emulation; model calibration

Computer simulators are often used to study complex physical systems. We aim to investigate the formation of binary black holes by means of a computer model, with inputs that consist of both initial conditions and physical parameters to be inferred. Forming a statistical surrogate, or emulator, for the simulator of the "chirp mass" is particularly challenging in this case because the response is zero when a binary black hole fails to form. In order to find regions in the input space that lead to non-zero outputs, a local GP classifier is employed The classifier is then combined with a local Gaussian process model to construct an emulator of the physics model and subsequently used for computer model calibration.