A Statistical Study of Swing State Behavior in the 2020 US Presidential Election
Mason Chen
Stanford OHS
Saloni Patel
Stanford OHS
This paper studies factors that influenced the voting behavior of 15 key swing states in the 2020 United States presidential election by linking statistical clustering methods with notable political events. In addition to key decisions made in the Trump administration, factors unique to this presidential election such as the global COVID-19 pandemic and the Black Lives Matter movement were investigated. In order to identify the most important swing states, a Swing State Index was derived using the 2012, 2016, and 2020 election outcomes. Next, hierarchical clustering was used to group the 15 swing states based on the Swing State Index, and the relationships between each cluster were attributed with events that may have factored into the cluster behavior. The most representative and significant swing states were identified to be Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania (based on the clustering history) as well as Michigan and Minnesota (based on the Swing State Index). After analyzing specific events that affected these six states' voting behavior, the Black Lives Matter movement and concerns over health care were the most significant factors in President Trump's defeat.