eventscribe

The eventScribe Educational Program Planner system gives you access to information on sessions, special events, and the conference venue. Take a look at hotel maps to familiarize yourself with the venue, read biographies of our plenary speakers, and download handouts and resources for your sessions.

close this panel
‹‹ Go Back

Nathan B. Cruze

USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service



‹‹ Go Back

Habtamu K. Benecha

USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)



‹‹ Go Back

Please enter your access key

The asset you are trying to access is locked for premium users. Please enter your access key to unlock.


Email This Presentation:

From:

To:

Subject:

Body:

←Back IconGems-Print

615 – Bayesian Methods for Complex Survey Designs and Data

A Model-Based Approach to Crop Yield Forecasting

Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Keywords: Bayesian hierarchical model, Composite estimation, Model-based estimation, Survey sampling

Nathan B. Cruze

USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Habtamu K. Benecha

USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)

The USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service conducts multiple surveys for major crops during the growing season. These surveys are designed to capture the current status of crops at state, regional, and national levels with a first-of-the-month reference date. Each of the surveys also provides an estimate of potential end-of-season crop yield. We extend a Bayesian hierarchical model to produce improved yield forecasts for upland cotton. The model combines these possibly disparate survey estimates together with auxiliary data to produce one-number forecasts for a region and its member states. The resulting state forecasts are benchmarked against the regional forecast. The model gives rise to easily reproducible estimates with rigorous measures of uncertainty. The proposed candidate model for upland cotton is shown to perform well over a wide variety of growing conditions. Some particular challenges of modeling upland cotton are noted.

"eventScribe", the eventScribe logo, "CadmiumCD", and the CadmiumCD logo are trademarks of CadmiumCD LLC, and may not be copied, imitated or used, in whole or in part, without prior written permission from CadmiumCD. The appearance of these proceedings, customized graphics that are unique to these proceedings, and customized scripts are the service mark, trademark and/or trade dress of CadmiumCD and may not be copied, imitated or used, in whole or in part, without prior written notification. All other trademarks, slogans, company names or logos are the property of their respective owners. Reference to any products, services, processes or other information, by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, owner, or otherwise does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship, or recommendation thereof by CadmiumCD.

As a user you may provide CadmiumCD with feedback. Any ideas or suggestions you provide through any feedback mechanisms on these proceedings may be used by CadmiumCD, at our sole discretion, including future modifications to the eventScribe product. You hereby grant to CadmiumCD and our assigns a perpetual, worldwide, fully transferable, sublicensable, irrevocable, royalty free license to use, reproduce, modify, create derivative works from, distribute, and display the feedback in any manner and for any purpose.

© 2017 CadmiumCD