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232 – From Ranch to Rain: Government Statistics on Agriculture and Weather
Capture-Recapture Estimation of Local Food Farms in the United States
Michael Hyman
National Agricultural Statistics Service
Over the past decade, the popularity of farmer's markets and locally produced agricultural products have grown rapidly. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA's) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) conducts many surveys; however, no survey currently focuses directly on the marketing practices of operations that distribute products locally. In 2016, NASS initiated a project with the objective to learn more about this agricultural system. Samples were selected from (1) the NASS sampling frame of potential farms, and (2) a new frame built via advanced web-scraping technology. A survey questionnaire specific to local food marketing practices was distributed to each of the sampled operations. Dual system estimation methodology was used to estimate the total number and sales of local foods operations at the U.S. and state levels. In this study, the dual system estimator used to estimate the population total for agricultural operations that distribute food locally is described. National level results from this new study are discussed, and some of the statistical challenges addressed.