Andreea L. Erciulescu
National Institute of Statistical Sciences and USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
409 – Small-Area Estimation and Use of Unit-Level Models
Developments in Model-Based County-Level Estimation of Agricultural Cash Rental Rates
Michael E. Bellow
National Agricultural Statistics Service
Nathan B. Cruze
USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
Andreea L. Erciulescu
National Institute of Statistical Sciences and USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
Estimates of agricultural cash rental rates at different geographic levels are used for rental agreement formulation, farm program administration and other applications. The USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) has been producing estimates of average cash rental rates at the state level since 1997. In 2009, the agency fully implemented an annual Cash Rents Survey (CRS) to obtain estimates of average cash rental rates for counties with at least 20,000 acres of cropland or pastureland in three land use categories. Since sample sizes for a number of counties were too small for reliable direct estimation, NASS developed a model-based estimation method (implemented in 2013) that incorporates auxiliary information and involves separate area-level modeling of the average and difference of rental rates over two survey years. With the 2014 Farm Bill specifying that the survey be conducted "no less frequently than every other year", the current focus is on evaluating how this estimator would perform with survey data from two years apart (when the survey is skipped in the intervening year). We describe the results of an empirical study addressing that question and discuss future directions for research.