138 – Statistical Applications in Criminal Justice and Law Enforcement
On the Prognosis of Third Generation Migrants’ Occupational Status in Germany
Petra Stein
University of Duisburg-Essen
Dawid Bekalarczyk
University of Duisburg-Essen
The subject of the project (funded by the German Research Foundation) is to model the future development of the occupational status of migrants in the context of the demographic transition in Germany. The focus lies on the 3rd generation of migrants. Most of their members are too young, to analyze their occupational status directly. However, it is possible to forecast it reliably, because data already exists for the most important mechanisms which drive the occupational status. The methodical goal is to show that simulation methods are appropriate for many sociological research questions. They have advantages compared to standard statistical methods which base on linearity or other known mathematical functions. The chosen method is the dynamic micro simulation which allows to model competitive hypotheses on individual level combined with demographic-relevant processes. The extrapolation is stochastic, random experiments yield the simulated values. Thus the exact result is not predetermined by the model. Parameters for the prognosis model are estimated by longitudinal analyses (random effect & growth curve models) with empirical data (German Socio-Economic Panel and microcensus).