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Xu Qin

University of Chicago



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Guanglei Hong

The University of Chicago



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483 – GSS/SSS/SRMS Student Paper Award Presentations

Analyzing Heterogeneous Causal Mediation Effects in Multi-Site Trials with Application to the National Job Corps Study

Sponsor: Survey Research Methods Section
Keywords: Direct and indirect effects, method of moments, multilevel modeling, ratio-of-mediator-probability weighting, two-step estimation, multisite randomized trials

Xu Qin

University of Chicago

Guanglei Hong

The University of Chicago

When a multi-site randomized trial reveals between-site variation in program impact, methods are needed for further investigating heterogeneous mediaton mechanisms across the sites. We conceptualize and identify a joint distribution of site-specific direct and indirect effects under the potential outcomes framework. A method-of-moments procedure incorporating ratio-of-mediator-probability weighting (RMPW) consistently estimates the causal parameters. This strategy conveniently relaxes the assumption of no treatment-by-mediator interaction while greatly simplifying the outcome model specification without invoking strong distributional assumptions. We derive asymptotic standard errors that reflect the sampling variability of the estimated weight.

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