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520 – Leveraging the American Community Survey as a Sampling Frame for the National Survey of College Graduates
Some Statistical Analyses and Nonanalyses with Historical Consequences
James R. Thompson
Rice University
We note how the work of Thomas Bayes disproved the Cartesian Enlightenment view of "starting from zero." We note how the work of the Enigma group led by Marian Rejewski saved Britain from Uboat facilitated starvation and kept the UK in WWII, forcing Hitler to fight a two front war. We demonstrate that the assumption of a martingale structure in stocks led to the catastrophe of derivative and subprime mortgages. We note how nonimplementation of closure of the gay bathhouses in the USA has been responsible for over 700,000 American deaths from AIDS and made the US AIDS rate the highest in the First World. We note how the subtle game theoretic considerations of Herman Kahn led to a favorable conclusion of the Cold War.