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552 – Contributed Oral Poster Presentations: Social Statistics Section
Simulation Studies for Dengue Transmission and Within-Host Immune Responses
Alexander Kirpich
University of Florida
Yang Yang
University of Florida
Ira Longini
University of Florida
M. Elizabeth Halloran
Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center
Dengue is a neglected tropical infectious disease transmitted between mosquitoes and human be-ings. There are four known serotypes cocirculating with similar clinica symptoms. Infection with one serotype provides permanent immunity against it Secondary or tertiary infections lead to more severe diseases than primary ones Serotype-specific laboratory testing was not available until recently. Tests were only performed on infected people with symptoms, leaving asymptomatic infections undetected. We propose to simulate dengue epidemics together with immune responses. In this simulation study infection outcomes are observable only during a hypothetical study period and only on those randomly selected symptomatic infections. A cohort study data conducted from 2004 to 2010 in Nicaragua is a motivating data set. We investigate quality of the inference based on the amount of known full infection histories in the sample.