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83 – Analysis of Financial Markets: Stocks, Exchange Rates, and Monetary Policy

Validity Testing for Coverage Properties of Small-Area Models for Cell Proportions

Sponsor: Survey Research Methods Section
Keywords: Arcsine square-root transformation, Beta-binomial regression, Confidence Bound, Parametric Bootstrap, Prediction Interval, Transformed Fay-Herriot Model

Aaron Gilary

U.S. Census Bureau

Jerry Maples

U.S. Census Bureau

Eric Victor Slud

U.S. Census Bureau

In Gilary, Maples, and Slud (2012), we compared three possible models for small proportions in small survey domains: Fay-Herriot (Fay and Herriot 1979), GLMM (Jiang and Lahiri 2006), and Beta-Binomial (Prentice 1986). The comparisons used bootstrap-based con dence intervals which were justi ed by asymptotic theory or established only for large samples. Here we build upon that work by conducting simulations of small area data in moderate-sample settings, for two purposes: to evaluate the performance of di erent analysis methods when using each of the three simulation models; and to assess the validity of predictors and Wald-type con dence interval coverage properties for each method.




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