356 – Financial Time Series Analysis
Small Area Estimates from the National Crime Victimization Survey
Robert Fay
Westat
Mamadou Diallo
Westat
Michael Planty
Bureau of Justice Statistics
The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) has provided annual estimates of criminal victimizations for four decades, almost exclusively focusing on national results. Previous papers have described an effort to develop small area approaches to produce estimates for states, and for large counties and cities. In this paper, we report the results from this effort and compare the estimates to the ongoing Uniform Crime Report (UCR) of the FBI. We describe methodological refinements to the methods for time-series modeling proposed by Rao and Yu. We also summarize substantive implications of the new results for understanding the geographic distribution of crime in the United States.