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429 – Data Challenges in Business and Economics
Comparisons of CPS Unemployment Estimates by Rotation Panel
Yang Cheng
U.S. Census Bureau
Michael D. Larsen
The George Washington University
Alexander Wakim
The University of North Carolina
The Current Population Survey (CPS) is a monthly household survey of 72,000 households conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau for the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to measure employment, unemployment, and other characteristics of the civilian non-institutionalized population in the United States. The CPS began in 1940 and provides data for key economic indicators. In this paper, we will study CPS rotation panel bias, investigate whether the estimates of unemployment for different Month-in-Sample (MIS) panels are statistically significant, and explore the assumptions underlying the AK composite estimate. We are particularly interested in the comparison of MIS 1 versus MIS 5 because they are based on personal interviews and are key elements in AK composite estimate. We apply a nonparametric statistical method with dependent permutations across time to real CPS data from 2006-2010.