67 – Estimating Unauthorized Migration
Thinking About Unauthorized Population Estimates as Residuals: The Method and Policy Implications
Karen Woodrow-Lafield
University of Maryland Population Research Center
Critical studies set forth unauthorized population estimates which are aggregate estimates derived by a residual technique rather than based on individual-level immigration status. The population-level or census-level survey estimate of foreign-born persons (or aliens) is compared with estimates of the legally resident foreign-born (or alien) population based primarily on administrative data. The discussion summarizes the value for providing insights on the origins, demographic characteristics, geographic distribution of the undocumented alien population, and associated annual average measures of net unauthorized migration or population change due to unauthorized migration. These estimates have implications not only for evaluating immigration enforcement but also for projecting future workers and beneficiaries and evaluating finances for the Old-Age and Survivors Disability Insurance programs.
