414 – Small-Area Estimation: Applications and Enhanced Methods
Evaluation of Small-Area Estimates of Substance Use in the National Survey on Drug Use and Health
Art Hughes
SAMHSA
Neeraja Sathe
RTI International
Kathryn Spagnola
RTI International
Akhil K. Vaish
RTI International
Small area estimation methods are used to produce State and substate estimates of substance use and mental disorders using data from a major U.S. behavioral health survey. State and local policymakers use these estimates to understand the nature and extent of the problem and to justify funding for substance abuse prevention and treatment programs in their jurisdictions. Design-based estimates could be used as an alternative. They are less expensive than small area estimates (SAEs) and take less time to produce, thus, it is important to determine how the SAEs compare to their design-based counterparts in terms of accuracy and precision. In 2001, a validation study was conducted to judge the quality of the State SAEs. That study found that SAEs were generally more precise than design-based estimates while exhibiting only small levels of bias (Wright, 2001). We extend this analysis using more recent data to validate the substate SAEs in a similar fashion.
