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Abstract:
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Fragmentation analysis is a critical piece of the live fire test and evaluation (LFT&E) of lethality and vulnerability aspects of warheads. But the traditional methods for data collection are expensive and laborious. New optical tracking technology is promising to increase the fidelity of fragmentation data, and decrease the time and costs associated with data collection. However, the new data will be complex, three dimensional ‘fragmentation clouds’, possibly with a time component as well. This raises questions about how testers can effectively summarize spatial data to draw conclusions for sponsors. In this briefing, we will discuss the Bayesian spatial models that are fast and effective for characterizing the patterns in fragmentation data, along with several exploratory data analysis techniques that help us make sense of the data. Our analytic goals are to – Produce simple statistics and visuals that help the live fire analyst compare and contrast warhead fragmentations; – Characterize important performance attributes or confirm design/spec compliance; and – Provide data methods that ensure higher fidelity data collection translates to higher fidelity modeling and simulation.
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