Applications of Poisson Models for Rating Teams and Predicting Outcomes of Soccer Matches

• Activity Number: 339 - Novel Applications of Statistics in Sports
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Tuesday, August 9, 2022 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
• Author(s): Robin Lock* and Brenden Bready
• Companies: St. Lawrence University and St. Lawrence University
• Keywords: poisson regression; soccer ratings

Abstract

We consider bivariate Poisson models for rating offensive and defensive abilities of soccer teams based on past league game results and predicting the outcomes of future matches. We describe a shiny app for downloading up to date match outcomes for the English Premier League, updating team ratings, forecasting near-term scheduled contests, tracking the accuracy of those predictions, and allowing for in game computation of event probabilities.