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Activity Number: 431 - Contributed Poster Presentations: Section on Statistics and the Environment
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 10, 2022 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
Abstract #323235
Title: Modeling Ciguatera Fish Poisoning Cases Using Climate and Environmental Factors in Florida
Author(s): Christopher Ryzowicz* and Motti Goldberger and Michael Splitt and Robert van Woesik and Nezamoddin N. Kachouie
Companies: New College of Florida and University of Maryland, College Park and Florida Institute of Technology and Florida Institute of Technology and Florida Institute of Technology
Keywords: Climate Change; Ciguatera Fish Poisoning; Count Data; Statistical Modeling; Negative Binomial Regression; Zero Inflated Negative Binomial
Abstract:

Ciguatera fish poisoning (CFP) is a common and dangerous problem in equatorial regions. The dinoflagellates that contain the ciguatoxins, and which are ingested by fishes, prefer warmer ocean temperatures and reefs. Therefore, CFP cases are predicted to increase with ocean warming caused by global climate change. CFP in Florida has not received as much attention as it has in the Pacific Ocean, where CFP cases frequently exceed hundreds of thousands annually. A recent increase in CFP cases in Florida, however, is attracting considerable attention. It is essential to investigate and identify the associated environmental and climate factors associated with CFP cases to understand the underlying cause of the recent increase. In this study, different count modes are investigated to find an optimal model that can explain the increased CFP cases in Florida. Because of the substantial number of unreported CFP cases and the over-dispersion of data, Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial was determined as the most suitable model. The significant environmental and climate predictors to model CFP cases in Florida are cumulative fish weight, storm intensity, mean sea surface temperature, the interaction between degree heating weeks and storm intensity, and the interaction between cumulative fish weight and storm intensity.


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