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Abstract:
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In a reproductive aquatic toxicity experiment, organisms are exposed to various concentration levels of the testing chemical and the reproduction outcomes are observed and compared. The adverse effects of the chemical on reproduction are then evaluated and quantified as a function of the concentration levels. The resulting potency estimates, such as the relative inhibition concentrations (RIp) associated with a specified level of inhibition to the control responses, are used in decision-making and risk management. While an aquatic toxicity test often utilizes outcomes from a single experiment, laboratories commonly have a history of conducting such experiments using the same organism species and following the same experimental protocols. Sample size determination (SSD) is a crucial aspect of the design of aquatic toxicity tests: it is desirable to use as few organisms as possible, yet retain the same quality or precision of potency estimation. In the present study, we propose a simulation-based Bayesian approach to explore the possibility of reducing the sample size when the prior input uses historical control data.
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