Abstract:
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Hawkes process is one of the most commonly used models for capturing the self-exciting nature of earthquake occurrences. However, earthquakes have complicated characteristics due to plate tectonics, which existing methods with Hawkes process cannot fully represent. This study introduces a novel nonparametric Hawkes process model that accounts for complex tectonic plate structure. The proposed methods achieve flexibility in two ways. First, it incorporates the spatial inhomogeneity of the self-excitation mechanism along the convergent plate boundaries. Second, it reflects the space-time interactions of aftershock occurrences by assuming non-separable spatio-temporal triggering structure. For model estimation, we extend the model-independent stochastic declustering (MISD) algorithm with enhanced computational efficiency. We present extensive numerical results for proposed methods and comparison to existing methods in the literature. Proposed methods are applied to real earthquakes catalog data in the zone of the Ring of Fire.
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