Abstract:
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Longitudinal data allow for the estimation of developmental trajectories of substance use from adolescence to young adulthood, but these estimates may be subject to bias due to attrition from panel studies. Moreover, there is a lack of consensus regarding the most effective statistical methodology to adjust for sample selection and attrition bias when estimating these trajectories. Analyzing data from the Monitoring the Future panel study, we systematically compare alternative approaches to analyzing longitudinal data with a wide range of substance use outcomes, and examine the sensitivity of inferences regarding substance use prevalence and trajectories as a function of college attendance to the approach used. Our results show that analyzing wave-specific available cases while simultaneously accounting for correlations among repeated measures, selection, and attrition is the most effective approach. The adjustment effects are pronounced in wave-specific descriptive estimates but generally modest in covariate-adjusted trajectory modeling. The adjustments can influence the precision, and, to some extent, the implications of our findings regarding adolescent substance use trajectorie
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