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Activity Number:
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505
- Generalized Pairwise Comparisons and Win Statistics (Win Ratio, Win Odds, and Net Benefit): A Ten-Year Journey
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Type:
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Topic Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Thursday, August 11, 2022 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
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Sponsor:
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Biopharmaceutical Section
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Abstract #322288
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Title:
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On the Intransitivity of the Win Ratio
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Author(s):
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DAVID OAKES and Changyong Feng*
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Companies:
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University of Rochester, and University of Rochester
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Keywords:
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cardiovascular trials;
censored data;
composite outcome;
prioritized endpoints;
survival analysis;
win ratio
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Abstract:
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Pocock et al. (2012) following Finkelstein and Schoenfeld (1999) popularized the win ratio for analysis of controlled clinical trials with multiple types of outcome event. The approach uses pairwise comparisons between patients in the treatment and control groups using a primary outcome, say time to death, with indeterminacies broken resolved where possible using a secondary outcome, say time to hospitalization. Preferences assigned by this method may not be transitive. Intransitivity occurs when potential follow-up time varies between patients and rankings based on primary events differ from those based on secondary events. We derive some general properties of win-ratio preferences and provide numerical illustrations under some simple models. Unless all follow-up times are equal, see Oakes (2016) intransitivites are certain to occur in sufficiently large samples, but their overall frequency is low and there is no simple remediation of the problem.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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