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Activity Number: 351 - Contributed Poster Presentations: Statistical Society of Canada
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 9, 2022 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: SSC (Statistical Society of Canada)
Abstract #322070
Title: Alone Together: Bridging Empirical Bayes Meta-Analysis with Schoenfeld’s Augmented Bayesian Design
Author(s): Ofir Harari and Bart Heeg and Andre Verhoek and Mohsen Soltanifar*
Companies: Cytel Canada and Cytel Netherlands and Cytel Netherlands and Cytel Canada
Keywords: Empirical Bayes meta-analysis; clinical trial design; information borrowing

Introduction: Schoenfeld et al. (2009) proposed Bayesian design and analysis for a pediatric randomize controlled trial (RCT), to be informed by adult data, using a pre-specified borrowing fraction parameter (BFP). This incorrectly assumes that the BFP is intuitive and corresponds to the degree of similarity between the populations. Methods: We generalize the results of Schoenfeld et. al to K>1 historical datasets, derive simple expressions and show that it leads to Empirical Bayes meta-analysis (EBMA, Raudenbush & Byrk, 1985). We also show that the powers of the induced power-prior approach (Ibrahim & Chen 2000) are driven by uncertainty, rather than affinity between datasets. We proceed to offer power and sample size calculations for a future RCT, to be informed by K historical RCTs. The method is applied to simulated datasets with a dichotomous outcome. Results: We demonstrate how designing RCTs with EBMA in mind, can save resources and improve estimation accuracy. Conclusion: Bridging Schoenfeld’s design and EBMA can help inform inference on treatment effects for independent trials involving either different patient populations or various therapies from a common class.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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