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Activity Number:
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523
- Real-World Epidemiological Studies
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Thursday, August 11, 2022 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
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Abstract #321008
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Title:
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Significant Structural Breaks in the International Incidence of Hepatitis Delta Virus
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Author(s):
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Sherzod B. Akhundjanov* and Braden S. Fallon and Elaine M. Cooke and Matthew C. Hesterman and Jared S. Norseth and Melodie L. Weller
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Companies:
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Utah State University and University of Utah and University of Utah and University of Utah and University of Utah and University of Utah
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Keywords:
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Hepatitis Delta Virus;
Hepatitis B Virus;
Bio-surveillance;
Data Mining;
Clustering;
Structural Break
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Abstract:
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The international incidence of Hepatitis Delta Virus (HDV) is challenging to accurately estimate due to limited testing and lack of active surveillance for this rare infectious disease. These limitations prevent the detection of low-level and/or geographically dispersed changes in the incidence of HDV diagnoses. A study was designed to enable international active tracking and analyses of HDV epidemiology by aggregating international HDV and Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) diagnoses datasets. Publicly accessible datasets containing yearly incidence for HDV and HBV diagnoses were mined from government publications for 17 countries. Aggregated statistical analysis of these HDV and HBV datasets spanning 1999-2020 identified structural breaks in the timeline of HDV incidence in 2002, 2012, and 2017. A significant increase in the international HDV incidence, relative to reported HBV diagnoses, occurred in 2013-2017. Secondary analysis identified four distinct temporal clusters of HDV incidence. Re-evaluation of the testing paradigm for HDV in HBV-positive patients and an active surveillance status of HDV are warranted to define the etiology of the structural breaks in HDV incidence timelines.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
