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Activity Number: 277 - SPEED: Biometrics and Environmental Statistics Part 1
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 9, 2022 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Biometrics Section
Abstract #320954
Title: Kidney Transplantation Outcome Predictions (KTOP): A Risk Prediction Tool for Kidney Transplants from Brain-Dead Deceased Donors Based on a Large European Cohort
Author(s): Gregor Miller* and Donna P. Ankerst
Companies: Technical University of Munich and Technical University of Munich
Keywords: Kidney transplant; Risk calculator; Survival

European kidney donation shortages mandate efficient organ allocation by optimizing the prediction of success for individual recipients. Our objective was to develop the first European online risk tool for kidney transplant outcomes on the basis of recipient-only and recipient plus donor characteristics. We used individual recipient and donor risk factors and three outcomes for over 30 000 transplants within the Eurotransplant program between 2006 and 2018 in eight European countries. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to analyze the association of risk factors with overall patient mortality, and proportional subdistribution hazard regression models for their association with graft loss and death with functioning graft. Previously identified risk factors for outcomes following kidney transplants allowed for outcome prediction with 10-yr AUC values of up to 0.81. An online tool is now available ( for predicting kidney transplant outcomes both before and after a donor has been identified.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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