Confidence Intervals for Nonparametric Empirical Bayes Analysis

• Activity Number: 127 - JASA Theory and Methods Invited Session
• Type: Invited
• Date/Time: Monday, August 8, 2022 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: JASA Theory and Methods
• Author(s): Nikolaos Ignatiadis* and Stefan Wager
• Companies: Stanford University and Stanford University
• Keywords: Empirical Bayes; mixture models; local false sign rate; partial identification; bias-aware inference

Abstract

In an empirical Bayes analysis, we use data from repeated sampling to imitate inferences made by an oracle Bayesian with extensive knowledge of the data-generating distribution. Existing results provide a comprehensive characterization of when and why empirical Bayes point estimates accurately recover oracle Bayes behavior. In this paper, we develop flexible and practical confidence intervals that provide asymptotic frequentist coverage of empirical Bayes estimands, such as the posterior mean or the local false sign rate. The coverage statements hold even when the estimands are only partially identified or when empirical Bayes point estimates converge very slowly.