Uncertainty Quantification for the Mars Sample Return Earth Entry System Landing

• Activity Number: 493 - Uncertainty Quantification for the Mars Sample Return Mission
• Type: Invited
• Date/Time: Thursday, August 11, 2022 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
• Sponsor: Uncertainty Quantification in Complex Systems Interest Group
• Author(s): Kevin Carpenter* and Aaron Siddens and Giuseppe Cataldo and Scott Perino
• Companies: Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology and Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology,
• Keywords: Uncertainty Quantification; Mars Sample Return

Abstract

In order to meet the rigorous containment requirements placed on the Mars Sample Return (MSR) campaign, key elements of MSR must demonstrate that the overall risk of releasing Martian material into Earth’s biosphere is below prescribed thresholds. This is especially true for the Earth Entry System (EES) landing element of MSR. The EES is a reentry vehicle designed to deliver Mars samples from near-Earth space to land in the soft soil terrain of the Utah Test and Training Range. Uncertainties associated with the EES landing are broadly categorized as (1) system uncertainties and (2) environmental uncertainties. System uncertainties for the EES include material properties and geometry. Environmental uncertainties include landing trajectory and soil properties. The combined conditions of the system and environment at landing are mapped to the probability of loss of containment by means of detailed simulations of the landing event, statistical post-processing, and surrogate modeling. This presentation covers the preliminary statistical approaches in use to make risk-informed design decisions and keep the likelihood of containment failure below the level prescribed for the EES landing.