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Activity Number: 539 - Statisticians in the Reproducibility and Research Reform Movement
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Thursday, August 11, 2022 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistical Consulting
Abstract #320450
Title: Defense Against the Dark Arts: The Potential, Progress, and Possible Pitfalls of Preregistration
Author(s): Tom E Hardwicke*
Companies: University of Amsterdam
Keywords: preregistration; bias; transparency; selective reporting; multiplicity; meta-research
Abstract:

Flexibility in the design, analysis, and interpretation of scientific studies creates a multiplicity of possible research outcomes. Scientists are granted considerable latitude to selectively report outcomes that create the most positive, coherent, and attractive story, whilst suppressing outcomes that are negative or inconvenient. Engaging in the dark arts of selective reporting and post-hoc story-telling may yield personal benefits, such as prestigious publications, funding, awards, book deals, and promotion, but can lead to a proliferation of bias that undermines the integrity of the scientific literature. I will discuss the potential of preregistration as a defence against these dark arts. Preregistration involves declaring study design and analysis plans in a public registry before observing research outcomes. Preregistration (1) reduces the risk of bias, by encouraging outcome-independent decision-making; and (2) increases transparency, enabling others to assess the risk of bias and calibrate their confidence in research outcomes. I will discuss the potential, progress, and possible pitfalls of preregistration as its adoption expands across scientific disciplines.


Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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