|
Activity Number:
|
223
- Forecasting for Policy in an Uncertain and Rapidly Changing World
|
|
Type:
|
Invited
|
|
Date/Time:
|
Tuesday, August 9, 2022 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
|
|
Sponsor:
|
Business and Economic Statistics Section
|
|
Abstract #320439
|
|
|
Title:
|
Jointly Modeling Male and Female Labor Participation and Unemployment
|
|
Author(s):
|
David Harry Bernstein* and Andrew B Martinez
|
|
Companies:
|
Environmental Protection Agency and US Department of the Treasury
|
|
Keywords:
|
Labor force participation;
unemployment;
cointegration ;
general to specific modeling
|
|
Abstract:
|
The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the largest change in labor force participation and unemployment in recorded U.S. history. However, the pandemic had very different impacts on males and females. In this paper we model the long-run behavior of male and female unemployment and labor force participation and use that to interpret how the impacts of the pandemic varied by gender. We start by replicating and extending an existing model of the labor market by gender. We then formulate a joint model of male and female unemployment and labor force participation prior to the pandemic. We use this model to forecast labor market behavior and to understand the differences in male and female labor market dynamics. We find that while there were sharp differences between males and females at the outset of the pandemic, these differences have generally disappeared and labor force participation remains low across genders.
|
Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
