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Activity Number: 532 - Statistical Innovations Driven by the COVID-19 Pandemic
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Thursday, August 11, 2022 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Committee on Applied Statisticians
Abstract #319308
Title: Excess Mortality Associated with COVID-19: January 2020 Through September 2021, United States
Author(s): Lauren Rossen*
Companies: National Center for Health Statistics, CDC
Keywords: mortality surveillance; vital statistics; coronavirus pandemic; excess deaths
Abstract:

Measures of excess mortality have been used to estimate the impact of public health pandemics or disasters such as the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly when there are questions about under-ascertainment of deaths directly attributable to a given event or cause (e.g., due to lack of testing or incomplete reporting of cause of death). Excess deaths are defined as the number of persons who have died from all causes, in excess of the expected number of deaths for a given place and time. Since April 2020, the National Center for Health Statistics has been releasing data on excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic on a weekly basis, using final and provisional mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System. Expected numbers of deaths are estimated using over-dispersed Poisson regression models with spline terms to account for seasonal patterns. Overall, an estimated 720,150 - 890,460 excess deaths have occurred in the United States from late January through September 25, 2021, with 74-89% of these attributed to COVID-19. These results provide information about the degree to which COVID-19 deaths might be underestimated and the impact of the pandemic on mortality in the US.


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