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             158 *  !  
         
        
             Tue, 8/4/2020,
                10:00 AM -
                11:50 AM  
         
        
            
            
                
                    Virtual 
                
             
         
     
    
        
            Statistical Demography — Topic Contributed Papers 
         
     
    
        
            Social Statistics Section , Government Statistics Section, Section on Bayesian Statistical Science 
         
     
    
    
        
            Organizer(s): Adrian  Raftery, University of Washington 
         
     
    
    
        
            Chair(s): Adrian  Raftery, University of Washington 
         
     
    
                    
                        
                            10:05 AM 
                         
                        
                            Scenario-Based Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of the Sex Ratio at Birth and Missing Female Births for All Countries and Country-Level Imbalances 
                            
                             
                            Fengqing  Chao, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology ; Patrick  Gerland, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations; Alex  Cook, National University of Singapore and National University Health System; Leontine  Alkema, University of Massachussetts 
                         
                     
                
                    
                        
                            10:25 AM 
                         
                        
                            ACCOUNTING for SMOKING in FORECASTING MORTALITY and LIFE EXPECTANCY 
                            
                             
                            Yicheng  Li, University of Washington ; Adrian  Raftery, University of Washington 
                         
                     
                
                    
                        
                            10:45 AM 
                         
                        
                            Detecting Disease Outbreak Using Travelers Data -- a Case Study of COVID-19 Epidemic 
                            
                             
                            Le  Bao, Penn State University ; Xiaoyue Maggie Niu, Penn State University; Ying  Zhang, Penn State University 
                         
                     
                
                    
                        
                            11:05 AM 
                         
                        
                            Bayesian Demographic Accounts 
                            
                             
                            Junni  Zhang, Peking University ; John   Bryant, Bayesian Demography Limited; Peter W. F. Smith,  School of Economic, Social and Political Sciences, University of Southampton 
                         
                     
                
    
        11:25 AM
     
    
        Floor Discussion