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Abstract:
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Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have wide applications in human genetics research. Notably, most PRS models include tuning parameters which improve predictive performance when properly selected. However, existing model-tuning methods require individual-level genetic data as the training or validation dataset. These data rarely exist in practice, creating a significant gap between PRS methodology and applications. Here, we introduce PUMAS (Parameter-tuning Using Marginal Association Statistics), a novel method to fine-tune PRS models using summary data from genome-wide association studies. Through extensive simulations, external validations, and analysis of 65 traits, we demonstrate that PUMAS can perform various model-tuning procedures (e.g. cross-validation) using GWAS summary statistics and can effectively benchmark and optimize PRS models under diverse genetic architecture. On average, PUMAS improves the predictive R2 by 205.6% and 62.5% compared to PRSs with arbitrary p-value cutoffs of 0.01 and 1, respectively. Applied to 211 neuroimaging traits and Alzheimer’s disease, we show that fine-tuned PRSs will significantly improve statistical power in downstream association analysis.
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