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Activity Number: 81 - Contributed Poster Presentations: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 3, 2020 : 10:00 AM to 2:00 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract #313754
Title: A Spatially Varying Transmission Model for Foot and Mouth Disease
Author(s): Xiaoxiao Li* and Murali Haran and Matthew Ferrari
Companies: Penn State University and Pennsylvania State University and Penn State University
Keywords: individual-level disease model; spatiotemporal model; FMD; surveillance design
Abstract:

Foot-mouth disease (FMD) is a severe, highly contagious viral disease which causes illness in cloven-footed animals. It is difficult to control and has potential of reintroduction into FMD-free countries. Individual-level models are used to characterize the spread infectious disease when abundant disease records are available. In this paper, we propose a flexible hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal model by adopting a distance-based transmission kernel and a spatial heterogeneous scaling factor to study the patterns of farm-level FMD outbreaks in Turkey from 2001 to 2012. Our model enables hotspot detection which identifies farms that are relatively more vulnerable to disease and also provides estimates on the transmission potential. In simulation and real data analysis, we explore the validity and reliability of model with impact of different levels of sampling effort as an illustration of surveillance design.


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