Return to Play Probabilities and the Assessment of Factors Associated with Recovery After Lower Extremity Injury in College Basketball

• Activity Number: 407 - Emerging Methods in Sports Injury Research: Strategies for Shifting the Paradigm
• Type: Topic Contributed
• Date/Time: Wednesday, August 5, 2020 : 1:00 PM to 2:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
• Author(s): Sarah N Morris* and Avinash Chandran and Christy L Collins
• Companies: Datalys Center for Sports Injury Research and Prevention and Datalys Center for Sports Injury Research and Prevention and Datalys Center for Sports Injury Research and Prevention
• Keywords: sports injury; return to play; injury recovery; NCAA basketball

Abstract

Time loss (TL) following sports-related injury is typically examined using a categorization of days lost. It has recently been shown that TL can be modeled as a count of days lost from participation to reflect the recovery process by accounting for latent injury severity. We examine factors associated with recovery following lower extremity injuries (LEI) in collegiate basketball athletes. Athletic Trainers participating in the NCAA Injury Surveillance Program reported 5,887 LEI during the 09/10-18/19 academic years. TL was calculated using the injury date and date of return to participation. Random effect Poisson regression models were used to determine factors associated with recovery. Expected TL after LEI differed across gender (p< .0001), division (p< .0001), season (p=.001), and injury site (p< .0001), conditional on the random effect (i.e. latent severity). Expected TL after LEI in women’s basketball was 50% higher than men’s basketball for injuries of similar severity. Expected TL in DI athletes was 56% lower than DIII athletes. Expected TL for hip/groin, lower leg/Achilles, and thigh injuries was lower than ankle injuries; knee injuries had 95% higher TL than ankle injuries.