Online Program Home
  My Program

All Times EDT

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 82 - Contributed Poster Presentations: Government Statistics Section
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 3, 2020 : 10:00 AM to 2:00 PM
Sponsor: Government Statistics Section
Abstract #313637
Title: Dancing Distributions: Developing a Better Understanding of County-Level Crop Yield from Posterior Summaries
Author(s): Nathan B. Cruze* and Lu Chen and Bal Nandram and Noemi Guindin
Companies: NASS, USDA and USDA and Worcester Polytechnic Institute and USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
Keywords: small area estimation; agricultural statistics; Bayesian analysis; yield; uncertainty; auxiliary data
Abstract:

The United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS) publishes annual end-of-season estimates of crop yields for a wide variety of commodity crops at the county level. These crop yields have been important determinants of payments allotted to farmers under a variety of USDA agricultural support programs. NASS is transitioning county estimates for more than a dozen commodity crops to a model-based approach. Building on Bayesian subarea models for crop yield (Erciulescu et al., 2018) applied to Illinois corn yields, this poster presentation examines methods of identifying relevant factors of crop yield and useful posterior summaries for assessing official county-level yields from 2011-2019.


Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2020 program