Online Program Home
  My Program

All Times EDT

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 402 - Statistical Methods for New Challenges in Lifetime/Complex Data
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 5, 2020 : 1:00 PM to 2:50 PM
Sponsor: Lifetime Data Science Section
Abstract #313372
Title: Estimation of time-varying reproduction numbers underlying epidemiological processes: a new statistical tool for the COVID-19 pandemic
Author(s): Yi Li*
Companies: University of Michigan
Keywords: inference ; high dimensional data analysis ; Cox models; debiased lasso; lung cancer

The coronavirus pandemic has rapidly evolved into an unprecedented crisis. The susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model and its variants {have been} used for modeling the pandemic. However, time-independent parameters in the classical models may not capture the dynamic transmission and removal processes, governed by virus containment strategies taken at various phases of the epidemic. Moreover, few models account for possible inaccuracies of the reported cases. We propose a Poisson model with time-dependent transmission and removal rates to account for possible random errors in reporting and estimate a time-dependent disease reproduction number, which may reflect the effectiveness of virus control strategies. We apply our method to study the pandemic in several severely impacted countries, and analyze and forecast the evolving spread of the coronavirus. We have developed an interactive web application to facilitate readers' use of our method.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2020 program