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Activity Number: 321 - Survey Estimation
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 5, 2020 : 10:00 AM to 2:00 PM
Sponsor: Government Statistics Section
Abstract #313314
Title: Using All Available Data for Official Estimates: An Illinois Pilot Study
Author(s): Linda J Young*
Companies: NASS
Keywords: remote sensing; official statistics; integrated data; surveys
Abstract:

In Spring 2019, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) conducted the March intentions survey in which farmers are asked what crops they have planted or intend to plant and the amount of land to be planted to each crop. Heavy rains in parts of the nation prevented farmers from planting their fields as planned. Thus, when NASS released its official estimates at the end of March, it received negative feedback because many data users thought that the estimates were too high. In response, NASS proposed exploring a new approach that begins with all available non-survey data and then uses the survey data to adjust the estimates and predictions. A pilot study is being conducted in Illinois to provide estimates of planted acres and predictions of yield for 2020. The relative value of 3-meter, 10-meter, and 30-meter satellite imagery for producing precise estimates is being explored. Another objective is to produce estimates and predictions on a finer time scale, such as weekly or biweekly. In this presentation, the methods and early results from the pilot study will be presented. The successes and lessons learned will be explored.


Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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