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Abstract:
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This presentation will describe an intra-institution collaboration between statisticians, data scientists, financial analysts, software developers, and data warehousing specialists to build an interactive online tool that uses historical data to provide up-to-date financial forecasts for a nonprofit research institution. Revenue and earnings forecasts by year are provided separately for awarded projects, identified opportunities that have not been awarded, and opportunities not yet identified. Forecasts for revenue and income are based on models for bid probability, win probability, revenue leakage, and spread over the anticipated project duration. The forecasts provide the institution with key measures of business strength that are crucial to informed short-term and long-range planning. We will describe the motivation behind the project, forecasting methodologies, and lessons learned.
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