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Activity Number: 128 - Modeling for the Masses: Tackling Infectious Disease for the Public Good
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 3, 2020 : 1:00 PM to 2:50 PM
Sponsor: Biometrics Section
Abstract #313252
Title: Strategies for Modeling Dynamics of Emerging Epidemics
Author(s): Ali Arab*
Companies: Georgetown University
Keywords: Spatio-temporal; epidemiology; Bayesian; lyme disease; Zero-Inflated; hurdle models

The dynamics of emerging epidemics are complex to understand and difficult to model. Moreover, data for rare conditions (over time and space) often include excess zeros which may result in inefficient inference and ineffective prediction for such processes. This is a common issue in modeling rare or emerging diseases or diseases that are not common in specific areas, specific time periods, or those conditions that are hard to detect. A common approach to modeling data with excess zeroes is to use zero-modified models (i.e., hurdle and zero-inflated models).Here, we discuss strategies for effectively model the dynamics of disease spread based on zero-modified hierarchical modeling approaches. To demonstrate our work, we provide a case study of modeling the spread of Lyme disease based on confirmed cases of the disease in the United States.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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