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Activity Number:
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503
- Climate and Meteorological Statistics
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Thursday, August 6, 2020 : 10:00 AM to 2:00 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics and the Environment
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Abstract #312888
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Title:
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Bootstrap-Based Identification of the Surface Impact of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
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Author(s):
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Jessica Oehrlein* and Lorenzo M. Polvani and Clara Deser
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Companies:
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Columbia University and Columbia University and National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Keywords:
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sudden stratospheric warming;
bootstrap;
stratosphere-troposphere coupling;
North Atlantic Oscillation
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Abstract:
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Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are disruptions to the stratospheric polar vortex that frequently descend and affect winter surface climate for one to two months. While the mean response to SSWs in the North Atlantic and Europe is well-established, other features of the response and its variability are less well-understood. We study the observed response to SSWs and its uncertainty by using bootstrapping with replacement to construct synthetic SSW composites from observed SSW events. We find that the canonical responses of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation and a Eurasian cold anomaly in the month following SSWs are robust to sampling variability, though the magnitude and spatial pattern of these anomalies vary. The surface impact in the Pacific and North America is more uncertain. We further study how this uncertainty is related to vortex strength and other atmospheric phenomena. These results can be used to evaluate the fidelity of weather forecast models in capturing the effects of SSWs.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
