Understanding Space Radiation Cancer Risk for Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow

• Activity Number: 213 - Contributed Poster Presentations: Section on Risk Analysis
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Tuesday, August 4, 2020 : 10:00 AM to 2:00 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Risk Analysis
• Author(s): Lori Chappell*
• Keywords: Risk of Exposure Induced Death (REID); Space Radiation; Cancer incidence rates; Cancer mortality rates; NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR)

Abstract

Astronauts face many hazards during spaceflight, including exposure to the space radiation environment. Because radiation is an established carcinogen, the NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model was developed to estimate excess cancer risk in the astronaut population due to space radiation exposure. The metric used by NASA to quantify excess risk of cancer mortality is known as risk of exposure induced death (REID), which estimates the probability of dying from a radiation-induced cancer. Currently, the model incorporates US population background cancer and mortality rates to translate epidemiologic evidence from Japanese atomic bomb survivors to a US population. While space travel is currently limited to formally trained astronauts, the inevitability of space tourism requires a broader understanding of how background cancer rates and trends will affect the public’s risk associated with space radiation exposure. This presentation will describe the changing trends in US cancer and mortality rates, how they affect the calculation of REID, and what these trends mean for astronauts and other future space travelers.