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Activity Number:
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72
- Methods for Extreme Values in Environmental Data
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Monday, August 3, 2020 : 10:00 AM to 2:00 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics and the Environment
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Abstract #312731
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Title:
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Modeling First Arrival of Migratory Birds Using a Hierarchical Max-Infinitely Divisible Process
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Author(s):
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Dhanushi Wijeyakulasuriya* and Benjamin A Shaby and Ephraim Hanks
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Companies:
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Pennsylvania State University and Colorado State University and The Pennsylvania State University
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Keywords:
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bird migration;
first arrival;
max-infinitely divisible process;
max-stable process;
spatial extremes
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Abstract:
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The first arrival of migratory birds has practical applications in agricultural activities and as a tool for examining impacts of climate change. Prediction of first arrival in unobserved locations given observed data in early Spring is also a useful tool for ornithologists as well as bird watching enthusiasts. There are no instances of formal spatial models used to understand the dynamics of first arrival in existing literature. Max infinitely divisible process and max stable processes (a special case of the former) have been introduced in the field of climate extremes to study phenomena such as extreme precipitation and temperature. We frame the problem of modeling first arrival of migratory birds as a problem of modeling spatial extremes. We apply this method to study and predict the Spring arrival of Magnolia Warblers in the North East states of the United States from 2004-2019 using data from the eBird database.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
