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Activity Number:
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562
- Statistical Methods for Multivariate Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Models with Application to the Environment
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Type:
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Invited
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Date/Time:
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Thursday, August 6, 2020 : 3:00 PM to 4:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics and the Environment
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Abstract #309308
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Title:
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A Stochastic Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Field Generator
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Author(s):
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William Kleiber* and Steve Sain
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Companies:
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University of Colorado and Jupiter Intelligence
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Keywords:
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Hurricane;
Lagrangian;
Nonstationary
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Abstract:
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Tropical cyclones (TCs) pose serious risks to coastal communities by endangering human safety and property. Coastal flooding is due to combined risk from wind-driven storm surge and intense precipitation driven by warm and wet atmospheric conditions. Only recently have models for TC rainfall been developed in meteorology, with most work focusing on wind-driven storm surge. However, due to the limited nature of available TC data, statistical modeling is beckoned. We introduce a new approach for simulating TC precipitation fields given a small number of TC track predictors such as storm center and central pressure deficit. The model is trained on numerical weather prediction output, and validated by cross-validation. The approach captures TC asymmetry as well as realistic space-time evolution of precipitation fields.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
