Activity Number:

388
 Advances in Disease Mapping

Type:

Invited

Date/Time:

Wednesday, August 5, 2020 : 1:00 PM to 2:50 PM

Sponsor:

Section on Statistics in Epidemiology

Abstract #309268


Title:

The role of socioeconomic status, environment, and temperature in the spatiotemporal distribution of the first Chikungunya epidemic in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Author(s):

Alexandra Schmidt*

Companies:

McGill University

Keywords:

Areal data;
Overdispersion;
Transfer function

Abstract:

Chikungunya is an Aedesborne disease; its dynamics are impacted by the vector's ecology. We analyse the spatiotemporal distribution of the first chikungunya epidemic in Rio de Janeiro, estimating the effect of socioeconomic and environmental factors as proxies of mosquitoes abundance. We fit Poisson spatiotemporal models using notified cases counts by neighbourhood and week. The logrelative risk of the Poisson distribution is decomposed as the sum of different components. The effects associated with sociodevelopment index and the proportion of green area of the neighborhood vary smoothly with time. To capture the instantaneous and the memory effects of temperature on the relative risk, we use a transfer function approach whose parameters vary per neighborhood. Inference procedure follows the Bayesian paradigm. Our findings suggest that in the beginning of the epidemic, the sociodevelopment index is inversely associated with the relative risk, whereas the effect of the proportion of green area of the neighborhood is null for most weeks. Temperature increases the risk of Chikungunya in most areas and this effect propagates for longer where the epidemic is concentrated.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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