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Activity Number: 107 - Strengthening Forensic Science: The Contribution of Statistics
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Monday, August 3, 2020 : 1:00 PM to 2:50 PM
Sponsor: Advisory Committee on Forensic Science
Abstract #309225
Title: A Step Forward in Estimating the Probability of Accidental Mark Locations on a Shoe Sole
Author(s): Naomi Kaplan Damary* and Micha Mandel and Yoram Yekutieli and Sarena Wiesner and Yaron Shor
Companies: Postdoctoral scholar, University of California, Irvine and The Hebrew University of Jerusalem and Hadassah Academic College and Israel National Police Division of Identification and Forensic Science (DIFS) and Israel National Police Division of Identification and Forensic Science (DIFS)
Keywords: Case-control sampling; Conditional maximum likelihood; Natural cubic splines; Random effects model; Randomly acquired characteristics (RACs); Shoeprints

Footwear comparison is done by using randomly acquired characteristics (RACs), such as scratches or holes. However, the distribution of RAC characteristics has not been investigated thoroughly. In this presentation, novel methods will be presented for estimating the probability that a RAC appears at a given location on a shoe sole. The first is based on pixel data, using a logistic regression and natural cubic splines. An alternative approach uses regions defined by forensic experts. It will be shown that RACs are likely to appear at certain locations, corresponding to the foot’s morphology. The results can guide investigators in determining the evidential value of footprint comparison.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

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