Inference for Individual-Level Models of Infectious Diseases with Covariates Measurement Error

• Activity Number: 101 - Recent Advances in Statistical Modeling of Infectious Diseases
• Type: Invited
• Date/Time: Monday, August 3, 2020 : 1:00 PM to 2:50 PM
• Sponsor: SSC (Statistical Society of Canada)
• Author(s): Leila Amiri* and Mahmoud Torabi and Rob Deardon
• Companies: University of Manitoba and University of Manitoba and University of Calgary
• Keywords: Conditional autoregressive model; Expectation Conditional Maximization algorithm; Individual-level models; Susceptible-infected-removed model; Measurement error ; Geographically-dependent individual level models

Abstract

Geographically-dependent individual-level models (GD-ILMs) are statistical models to identify infectious disease dynamic which allow us to consider the effect of the spatial locations of individuals, and also the distance between susceptible and infectious individuals for determining the risk of infection. In these models, it is assumed that the covariates used to predict the outbreak and transmission of diseases are measured accurately. However, there are many applications that the covariates are prone to measurement error. For instance, census covariates such as indigenous and socio-economic status, which are measured with error, are used as risk factors for influenza. In this talk, we propose a GD-ILM which also accounts for the individual-level and area-level covariates measurement error. Monte Carlo Expectation Conditional Maximization (MCECM) algorithm is used for inference. Estimated parameters using MCECM enable us to predict the areas with the highest average infectivity rates. We evaluate the performance of the proposed approach through simulation studies and also by a real data application of influenza data in Manitoba, Canada.