|
Activity Number:
|
84
- Contributed Poster Presentations: Section on Statistics and the Environment
|
|
Type:
|
Contributed
|
|
Date/Time:
|
Monday, August 3, 2020 : 10:00 AM to 2:00 PM
|
|
Sponsor:
|
Section on Statistics and the Environment
|
|
Abstract #312870
|
|
|
Title:
|
Modeling Global Surface Temperature as a Function of Carbon Dioxide Emissions via a Varying Coefficient Model
|
|
Author(s):
|
Xiyan Tan* and Colin Gallagher
|
|
Companies:
|
Clemson University and Clemson University
|
|
Keywords:
|
Varying coefficient models;
Nonlinear time series;
Nonparametric estimation;
Cross validation;
Temperature Change;
Single index model
|
|
Abstract:
|
In this study, carbon dioxide emission effects on global surface temperature are investigated using a nonlinear varying coefficient model, in which the relationship between the predictor and the response variable is estimated in a non-parametric manner. The proposed model includes the effect of carbon dioxide emissions of several previous years using generalized varying coefficient models where the link function admits some smoothness conditions and also accounts for temporal correlation in the temperature series. Historical records of global surface temperature and carbon dioxide from 1948 to 2014 are used to fit the model. The fitted model provides insight into the relationship between past carbon emissions and present/future temperature, and is compared to competing linear time series models in terms of predicting the recent temperature values.
|
Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
